When British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a General Election for 4th July, 2024, he gambled his political future and indeed that of many Conservative colleagues at Westminster. But will the gamble pay off and will he still be the occupant of Number 10 Downing Street when the dust settles on 5th July? Looking at the latest poll figures, it seems all but inevitable that Rishi’s short tenure as PM will come to an abrupt end as Keir Starmer’s Labour take power.
Whether you are into politics or not and whichever ‘team’ you support, there are numerous options to follow Rishi’s gambling lead by having a flutter on the General Election. In this article, we’ll run through the most popular betting markets and seek out a couple of bets that might prove shrewder than Sunak’s doomed gamble. We’ll also look at some of the more interesting constituencies that are being contested. Could the PM be unseated by Count Binface?
Note that any odds quoted are correct at the time of writing and are subject to change (as is the UK government!).
What Are the Main General Election Betting Markets?
Here are the main betting markets for the 2024 UK General Election, with a brief explanation of each (though most are fairly self-explanatory).
- Next UK General Election Most Seats – A simple bet on the party to win the most seats in Parliament at the Election. Labour are currently priced at odds of just 1/40 compared to 33/1 for the Tories and 40/1 for any other party to miraculously come out on top.
- Government After the Next General Election – A similar market, but more nuanced as winning the most seats doesn’t automatically lead to a party forming the next government. This market has various options including Labour Majority (1/16), Labour Minority (33/1), and even Labour-Lim Dem-SNP-Green Coalition (33/1). A Conservative Majority is way out at 66/1.
- Next Prime Minister – A bet on who will be the PM after this election. Based on the above, it should come as no surprise that Starmer is the odds-on favourite (1/33) with Sunak out at 16/1 and Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch both at 50/1.
- Turnout – Going away from the results themselves, this is a bet on the percentage of the eligible public that will turn out to cast their votes. Split into percentage bands, the shortest-odds options are 62.50-64.99% at 10/3 and 60.00-62.49% at 4/1. If you think the public are sick of politics and will be more interested in the Euros than the ballot box, you might opt for a low turnout of up to 55% at 10/1, but realistically, it’s likely to be nearer the 60% mark.
- Vote Percentage – There are vote percentage markets for the main parties (Labour, Conservative, Lib Dems, Reform, Green, SNP) that allow punters to bet on the share of the voting pie a particular party earns (which is often not reflected in the number of seats, especially for the smaller parties).
- Seats – Similar to the above, here you can bet on the number of seats a party will earn, usually in groups or sometimes over or under a particular number.
- Next Conservative Leader – For those who think Rishi will be out on his ear soon after polling day, there’s a chance to get an early bet on who will replace him as the next Tory leader. Kemi Badenoch is currently the 10/3 favourite, with Priti Patel (7/1), Penny Mordaunt (7/1) and Suella Braverman (9/1) completing the line-up of likely Rishi replacements.
Constituency Betting
As well as the outright General Election bets mentioned above (and many others we haven’t mentioned), punters can also have a flutter on the outcome of specific constituencies. Here we’ll take a brief look at some of the more interesting ones… including some that could create potentially big upsets.
- Richmond and Northallerton – Rishi Sunak’s constituency is not realistically up for grabs (even after his D-Day mess-up!). But as always with any PM’s local patch, there are plenty of contenders to challenge him, not least Sir Archibald Stanton from the Monster Raving Loony Party and Count Binface representing the Count Binface Party (available to back at 500/1).
- Holborn and St Pancras – Keir Starmer’s London constituency is also highly unlikely to be close to competitive (the Labour leader is priced at just 1/500 to win), although not for the want of trying from another Monster Raving Loony: Nick the Incredible Flying Brick!
- Islington North – A London seat that is unlikely to go Labour’s way is Islington North where former leader Jeremy Corbyn is standing as an independent after being thrown out of the Labour Party. He’s currently priced at odds of 2/5 to win the seat.
- Brighton Pavilion – This is the only seat held by the Green Party, but with their former leader Caroline Lucas retiring from Parliament, can they still hold onto it with their candidate Sian Berry? She’s the 2/5 favourite as things stand.
- North West Essex – Kemi Badenoch might be lining herself up as the next Tory leader, but she’s not nailed on to win her seat at the General Election. Okay, the odds of 1/9 suggest she’s a dead cert, but a recent Labour victory in a local council by-election and Kemi’s rating as only the 499th best constituency MP suggest change might be in the air in this usually staunchly Tory area.
- Portsmouth North – Penny Mordaunt is another vying for the Tory leader’s job after the election… but her chances of being around to apply for the role appear to be decreasing by the day. Labour’s Amanda Martin is currently the 8/15 favourite to win the seat with Mordaunt out at odds of 11/8.
- North East Somerset and Hanham – Jacob Rees-Mogg might seem like he’s stuck in the 1800s, but he’s only been in Parliament since 2010. He will face a real struggle to hang onto his seat though as he faces a strong challenge from Labour’s Dan Norris in this newly formed constituency.