Not for the first time in recent years, Arsenal will spend Christmas perched at the top of the Premier League. They were unable to turn that festive advantage into a league title in 2022/23 or 2023/24, but might this year be any different? In this article, we weigh up the chances of Arsenal finally carrying their leading position through to the end of the season.
Arsenal’s Threats
While Arsenal fans are no doubt happy to see their team in first place at Christmas, their lead at the top is a fairly slender one, with 21 games left to play.
| Team | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 39 | +21 |
| Man City | 37 | +25 |
| Aston Villa | 36 | +9 |
| Chelsea | 29 | +12 |
| Liverpool | 29 | +3 |
As Chelsea and Liverpool both trail by 10 points, it is hard to see either becoming seriously involved in the title race unless they unexpectedly find some major consistency. Next up, there is Aston Villa, merely three points behind, but the underlying data suggests they are not going to be serious challengers. Credit to Unai Emery’s team for winning seven successive league matches, but the run seems unsustainable. Opta’s expected points table has Villa all the way down in 15th place. Outliers always happen, of course, but even when Leicester won the league in 2016, they were still fourth in terms of expected points.
Maybe Villa will continue to impress, but it seems much more likely they will begin to tail off. There is a reason why they are still trading as long as 28/1 to be crowned champions. This leaves Man City as Arsenal’s sole serious challenger, and what a foe they can be, especially when hunting down a title. The good news for the Gunners, however, is that City do not look set for an especially high points tally this season.
Huge Points Total Unlikely to Be Required
With 37 points from 17 games, Man City are averaging 2.18 points per game. This works out to be almost 83 points, averaged over a full season. If City were to finish on 83 points, this would be a very obtainable target for Arsenal to beat. Indeed, the north Londoners exceeded this threshold both in 2022/23 (84) and 2023/24 (89).
Of course, City could turn up the heat as they have done in the past and drop far fewer points across the second half of the season. There is not a strong case for them managing this, mind you, as they simply do not look quite as good as they did in the past. At the same time, there is no strong reason to think they will drop off, so a points total around the mid to low 80s mark seems very realistic for Pep Guardiola’s men.
Gunners Need to Improve Scoring Threat
Arsenal are currently averaging 1.82 league goals per game, a rate which would see them end the campaign on 69 goals. This would be an extremely low figure for a Premier League champion. You have to go back to Leicester’s shock triumph in 2015/16 to see a league winner failing to register under 80 goals, let alone 70. This is not to say it cannot be done, especially given just how strong Arsenal’s defence is, but it could be their undoing in a tight title battle.
To be almost at the halfway stage and have your top goalscorer on five goals (two from penalties) must be of some concern. If nothing else, it will harm Arsenal’s goal difference and in a race this close, perhaps it is something that could make a difference. Defensively, Arsenal are very clearly league champion material, but modest improvements in attack would really do wonders to help their ambitions.
Arsenal vs City Clash in April Could Prove Decisive
This title race looks like it could very well go this distance. The Gunners are the slight favourites at 4/6, but City are not behind by much, trading at 6/4. The way things are shaping up, the pair could well be within touching distance of each other when they meet at the Etihad in mid-April. In what could be a true six-pointer, title hopes could be revived or dashed depending on the result of this match.
This clash represents the last extremely difficult-looking fixture for either side and could prove to be the last time they drop points, as they both enjoy reasonable run-ins. These are the scheduled fixtures remaining after the two title hopefuls face one another.
| Arsenal Fixtures (Last 5) | Man City Fixtures (Last 5) |
|---|---|
| Newcastle (H) | Burnley (A) |
| Fulham (H) | Everton (A) |
| West Ham (A) | Brentford (H) |
| Burnley (A) | Bournemouth (A) |
| Crystal Palace (A) | Aston Villa (H) |
Only one club in the current top seven features here (Aston Villa) and City have won every home clash with Villa since 2012.
Conclusion
Arsenal have done well to remain top despite a recent injury crisis, one that is now beginning to ease. A lack of attacking firepower could prove their undoing, but this represents their best chance of a title in years, with Manchester City not quite as formidable as they have been before. Overall, we’d say the Gunners are the most probable champions, but only by a whisker.