After losing 2-1 to fellow strugglers Nottingham Forest in a relegation six-pointer on 6th January, the outlook for West Ham United looked bleak. That defeat left the Hammers seven points adrift of safety after 21 games – a situation that history suggests is almost impossible to escape.
In the Premier League era, every team that has been seven or more points from safety after 21 matches has been relegated. Almost as concerning is that only two of 27 teams have managed to beat the drop after collecting 14 points or fewer from their first 21 games.
However, while the odds remain firmly stacked against West Ham, they now find themselves with a sense of belief. Back-to-back victories have closed the gap to safety to five points and injected confidence into a squad that looked broken weeks ago. Down but not yet out, the question is whether the Hammers can turn this newfound momentum into survival.
That winning feeling 🫶 pic.twitter.com/Vxw689sLDV
— West Ham United (@WestHam) January 24, 2026
Relegation Battle as It Stands
At this stage, Wolves and Burnley appear almost certain to go down. Opta give Wolves a 99.93% chance of relegation and Burnley 96.93%, effectively leaving one remaining relegation place up for grabs, the place currently occupied by the Hammers.
| Position | Team | Points | Relegation Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14th | Tottenham | 28 | 12/1 |
| 15th | Crystal Palace | 28 | 7/1 |
| 16th | Leeds United | 26 | 7/1 |
| 17th | Nottingham Forest | 25 | 6/1 |
| 18th | West Ham | 20 | 1/2 |
Nottingham Forest, Leeds United, Crystal Palace and even Tottenham are all close enough to danger that a poor run of form could pull them into the fight. West Ham just need to catch up to one of them, but the only way to do this is by securing more victories. So, what are the chances of Nuno Espírito Santo’s men claiming more wins over the next few weeks?
Upcoming Fixtures
At this point in the season, West Ham’s margin for error is minimal. You have to think that three points against Burnley and Bournemouth are non-negotiable to maintain a credible survival chance. Any points taken elsewhere would be a bonus, but six points from the next five games should be considered the minimum requirement.
| West Ham | Nottingham Forest | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea (A) | Crystal Palace (H) | Arsenal (H) |
| Burnley (A) | Leeds (A) | Forest (H) |
| Man Utd (H) | Wolves (H) | Chelsea (A) |
| Bournemouth (H) | Liverpool (H) | Aston Villa (A) |
| Liverpool (A) | Brighton (A) | Man City (H) |
This is especially true as you would expect Forest to collect a few points in their upcoming matches. Their three soonest league fixtures all take place against teams in the bottom six. You also have to consider that by playing Leeds, at least one of the relegation candidates is guaranteed to score points.
Can the Transfer Window Improve Survival Chances?
It is no surprise that West Ham have been more active than most in the transfer market, given that their Premier League survival is under threat. New striker Taty Castellanos has made a decent early impression, but expectations should be managed for 22-year-olds Pablo and Keiber Lamadrid. Pablo has not looked hugely out of his depth so far, but also seems unlikely to contribute many goals or assists.
The other winter recruit is long-time favourite of Nuno Espírito Santo, Adama Traoré. The 30-year-old is someone who might be able to make more meaningful, immediate contributions given his Premier League experience. Although he has always struggled for goals, last season he recorded seven league assists for Fulham, a decent return for someone who started 18 matches.
It is a surprise that West Ham have done nothing yet to bolster their defence, as the club has the worst defensive record in the league. They have recalled Kaelan Casey from his loan at Swansea, but only due to lack of playing time rather than because he’s in Nuno’s plans. As things stand, West Ham’s defence is weaker than it started the window, as loanee Igor Julio has headed back to Brighton.
Are the Recent Wins a Turning Point?
Winning back-to-back matches is huge for any relegation candidate, but context matters. The first victory came away at Tottenham. West Ham were impressive in the first half and deserved their lead, even if the opening goal carried an element of fortune. The second half told a different story, with Nuno’s side pinned deep and struggling to escape their own half.
To West Ham’s credit, they held reasonably firm and struck on the counter, winning a corner which they converted for a dramatic winner. As valuable as the win was, it is worth noting that Tottenham have the second-worst home record in the league, meaning West Ham may not have an easier away fixture remaining.
The second win came against Sunderland, who have the sixth-worst away record and were missing captain Granit Xhaka. His absence was significant, with the Black Cats looking well off their normal pace without him, but West Ham still deserve credit for being the better team on the day.
Based on this, fans should not get carried away by the recent wins, but there are some small signs that perhaps West Ham are slowly improving under Nuno. Whether they are improving fast enough remains to be seen.