Things could not be much closer between Arsenal and Chelsea in the Premier League after 11 games. Both sides sit on 19 points having won five games, drawn four and lost two. Their most recent match was against one another (on Sunday, 10th November, 2024) and the sides played out a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge.
With Chelsea in third place on goal difference and Arsenal just behind in fourth, these London sides are in a real scrap for the Champions League places. Will either or both secure their place in the top four by the end of the season or could one of them even go all the way and win the Premier League title? Before we get into all that, let’s take a look back at how each side has performed in the Premier League over the last 10 seasons.
Arsenal vs Chelsea: Premier League 2014/15 to 2023/24
| Season | Arsenal | Chelsea | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Position | Points | Position | Points |
| 2023/24 | 2nd | 89 | 6th | 63 |
| 2022/23 | 2nd | 84 | 12th | 44 |
| 2021/22 | 5th | 69 | 3rd | 74 |
| 2020/21 | 8th | 61 | 4th | 67 |
| 2019/20 | 8th | 56 | 4th | 66 |
| 2018/19 | 5th | 70 | 3rd | 72 |
| 2017/18 | 6th | 63 | 5th | 70 |
| 2016/17 | 5th | 75 | 1st | 93 |
| 2015/16 | 2nd | 71 | 10th | 50 |
| 2014/15 | 3rd | 75 | 1st | 87 |
| Average | 4.6 | 71.3 | 4.9 | 68.6 |
As you can see, there’s not a great deal between the sides when it comes to either their average finishing position or the average number of points they’ve earned over the last 10 Premier League seasons. Of course, Chelsea have actually won the title twice in that time, whereas Arsenal haven’t been crowned champions since 2003/04. But despite a couple of seasons endured by both sides when they’ve clearly underperformed, both sides have tended to be right up there competing for the Champions League places.
What the Bookies Think
At the time of writing, Arsenal are the third favourites to win the Premier League title and are available at odds of around 10/3. Chelsea, despite being ahead of Arsenal, albeit on goal difference, are way further back in the betting at 18/1 (though they are still the fourth favourites to land the title). The bookies are clearly favouring Arsenal as they’ve put up a better fight in the last couple of seasons. But after a poor run of results, perhaps the smart money would be on Chelsea, if picking between the two.
Of course, it’s likely neither of these London sides will become champions this term as they are both already nine points behind leaders Liverpool and four behind second-placed Man City. But looking instead to the better market for teams finishing in the top four, again Arsenal are priced at shorter odds than Chelsea and are priced at just 1/10 to land a Champions League spot. This compares to the 8/11 available for Chelsea to finish in the top four, which isn’t bad value given how the Blues have started to play under new boss Enzo Maresca.
Could Arsenal and/or Chelsea Miss Out on Champions League Qualification?
Of course, as we’ve seen in several previous seasons in recent times, either Chelsea or Arsenal (or indeed both) could miss out on Champions League qualification. At the time of writing, there are only four points separating Chelsea in third and Manchester United back in 13th in the table. So, which of those sides is most likely to threaten Arsenal and Chelsea’s chances of finishing in the top four?
Let’s leave Liverpool and Man City aside for now; even though City are going through a mini-crisis (for them!), we fully expect them to finish in the top four, if not the top two (assuming they don’t get a points deduction!). Looking at those below the London duo, as things stand we have the following sides.
Nottingham Forest – 5th, 19 points
Perhaps the surprise package of the season so far, Forest have improved dramatically from last term (when they finished in 17th position). Whether they’ll be able to maintain their positive start is another matter, however. The bookies think not, and they’re out at 33/1 to finish in the top four.
Brighton and Hove Albion – 6th, 19 points
Brighton got the better of champions Man City last time out and beat both Newcastle and Tottenham in October. On their day, they’ve shown they can beat anyone. But, as with one or two other teams who are just off the pace, it could come down to a lack of consistency and we won’t be backing Brighton for a Champions League spot at odds of 7/1.
Fulham – 7th, 18 points
Fulham finished in 13th place last season and we predict something similar this time around. They have enough quality to make life difficult for any side they face, but we don’t feel they’ll mount a serious push for a top-four finish as they’ll lose as many as they win.
Newcastle United – 8th, 18 points
Newcastle are one of the sides (along with Villa, Man United and Spurs) who might have a decent shot at a top-four finish. But for that to happen, Eddie Howe’s men must build on their recent positive results against Forest and Arsenal and stop dropping points against some of the lesser sides (such as Everton). They’re a fair bet at 9/2 to finish in the top four.
Aston Villa – 9th, 18 points
Villa did the business last season when they finished fourth and are now enjoying the fruits of those labours as they ruffle feathers in the Champions League. The danger for Villa could be that progression In the Champions League could cause their domestic form to suffer as player fatigue and injuries catch up with them. Still, they are a well-run club and they have a fair chance of repeating last season’s fourth-place finish.
Tottenham Hotspur – 10th, 16 points
Spurs, the next biggest London side behind Arsenal and Chelsea, are only three points behind their city rivals, and after finishing in fifth position last term, they will certainly be eager to break into the top four this time around. The bookies have them priced as the fifth-favourites to end up in the Champions League places (at 11/4), but we think they’ll fall just short again.
Brentford – 11th, 16 points
Brentford haven’t faced too many of the better sides in the Premier League as yet, and as such we think they’re in something of a false position as things stand. That’s not to say they won’t have a decent season, but we think a top-four finish is well beyond them.
Bournemouth – 12th, 15 points
Bournemouth have beaten both Man City and Arsenal this term, so they’re clearly a decent side. But then they’ve lost to Brentford and Leicester and we can’t see them putting the kind of run together that would see them finish in the Champions League mix.
Manchester United – 13th, 15 points
After the appointment of Ruben Amorim as their head coach, Man United’s chances of rising up the table have increased. Of course, it might take a while for the new man to find his feet, but the players will all be trying to impress and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Red Devils start picking up points this side of Christmas. Whether they have the squad depth to make it into the top four by the end of the campaign is doubtful, however.