Nations League 2024/25 Draw, Plus the Home Nations Chances (And Odds)

On 8th February 2024, the draw was made for the fourth edition of the Nations League. Scheduled to run across 2024/25, it follows a similar format to previous editions of the competition. Countries compete in small groups where promotion and or relegation is on the line. For teams in League A, there is also the possibility of being part of the National League Finals.

As the only Home Nation side in League A, Scotland are the only UK side with a shot of being crowned the next Nations League champions. England are usually among the favourites but following relegation last time around, they find themselves in League B alongside Wales. Completing the Home Nations set is Northern Ireland who remain in League C.

As well as looking at the full Nations League draw and format, in this article we will also focus on the chances of the four Home Nations sides involved.

How The Nations League Works

This fairly straightforward competition sees teams in each group play each other home and away. Results are tracked in a standard league format where teams are first ranked by points and then by goal difference, in the event of a tie. Once these fixtures have been played, the following happens:

  1. League A group winners and runners-up will participate in home-and-away quarter-finals with victors of each tie qualifying for the Final Four.
  2. Fourth-placed teams in Leagues A and B are relegated. The two lowest-ranked fourth-placed teams in League C are relegated.
  3. Leagues B, C and D group winners are promoted.
  4. Promotion/relegation play-off matches will take place between the third-ranked teams of League A and the runners-up of League B, as well as the third-ranked team of League B and the runners-up of League C.
  5. The two best-ranked fourth-placed teams from League C and the two runners-up from League D will also go head-to-head in a play-off.


Nations League matches will take place on the following dates:

  • Matchday 1: 5-7 September 2024
  • Matchday 2: 8-10 September 2024
  • Matchday 3: 10-12 October 2024
  • Matchday 4: 13-15 October 2024
  • Matchday 5: 14-16 November 2024
  • Matchday 6: 17-19 November 2024
  • Knockout round play-offs & League A quarter-finals: 20-25 March 2025
  • Final tournament: 4-8 June 2025

The Draw

Here are the 54 teams involved in the Nations League 2024/25 and who they will be competing against.

League A

  • Group A1: Croatia, Portugal, Poland, Scotland
  • Group A2: Italy, Belgium, France, Israel
  • Group A3: Netherlands, Hungary, Germany, Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Group A4: Spain, Denmark, Switzerland, Serbia

League B

  • Group B1: Czech Republic, Ukraine, Albania, Georgia
  • Group B2: England, Finland, Republic of Ireland, Greece
  • Group B3: Austria, Norway, Slovenia, Kazakhstan
  • Group B4: Wales, Iceland, Montenegro, Turkey

League C

  • Group C1: Sweden, Azerbaijan, Slovakia, Estonia
  • Group C2: Romania, Kosovo, Cyprus, Gibraltar/Lithuania
  • Group C3: Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Northern Ireland, Belarus
  • Group C4: Armenia, Faroe Islands, North Macedonia, Latvia

League D

  • Group D1: Lithuania/Gibraltar, San Marino, Liechtenstein
  • Group D2: Moldova, Malta, Andorra

Home Nations Chances

Now we have covered the entire draw, let us focus on how the Home Nation outfits might fare during this edition of the Nations League.

Scotland – 66/1 to Win

Nations League Odds 2024-25

Given the quality of teams Scotland could have faced, the draw has been relatively kind to them. Portugal will be tough to beat but Poland are a side Scotland will fancy their chances against. On paper, the Poles have some decent names, including a seemingly past his peak Robert Lewandowski, but they are very liable to a poor showing. Some of their most recent results include away losses to Albania and Moldova and a 1-1 home stalemate with the latter.

Similarly, Scotland are unlikely to be too intimated by the prospect of facing Croatia. The Vatreni have been a formidable side in recent major tournaments but their ageing squad is now on the decline. They failed to impress in what was a relatively easy Euro 2024 qualification group, scoring an underwhelming 13 goals in eight matches. Five of these goals came in one game against Latvia too.

If Scotland are able to perform at a high level, there is no zero reason why Steve Clarke’s men cannot take points from both Poland and Croatia. Avoiding relegation will be the main goal but finishing second and securing a quarter-final spot is not an unrealistic objective. Ultimately though, given how tough consistency is at this level, a third-place finish seems the most likely outcome.

England – 1/12 to Win Their Group

Nations League Odds 2024-25 - League B Group 2

Gareth Southgate surprised nobody by saying that his objective for this edition of the Nations League is to top the group. Anything less would represent a major failure for an England team that are the narrow favourites to win Euro 2024. Put bluntly, Finland, Greece and the Republic of Ireland are all teams that the Three Lions should be winning home and away.

Out of the three, Greece are the highest-ranked nation at the time of writing (47th), a full 44 places behind England. The toughest game, however, will most likely be Ireland away given the rivalry involved. Six of the last seven meetings with the Irish have ended up as a draw, although the most recent stalemate was back in 2015.

Ultimately, England could afford an off-day in this group though and still top it relatively comfortably. It is extremely difficult to see any other outcome than Southgate’s men booking their place back into League A.

Wales – 9/4 to Win Their Group

Nations League Odds 2024-25 - League B Group 4

Promotion will also be the aim for Wales and there are plenty of reasons to think they can manage it. Iceland have suffered a noticeable decline from the team that qualified for Euro 2016 and the World Cup 2018. Qualifying for either is something Montenegro has never managed and despite a couple of big names, they have rarely looked like a force on the international stage.

So, there is a decent chance that Wales take more points from matches against Iceland and Montenegro than they drop. Their clashes with Turkey seem a little more unpredictable, however. The two have played each other recently in Euro 2024 qualifiers with Turkey winning one and the other ending as a draw. The Dragons did play most of the defeat with 10 men though and only drew the other following an extremely soft penalty. Off the back of these two games, a win over the Turks hardly looks beyond Wales.

Northern Ireland

There is not a great deal of quality in League C and this is something reflected by the teams Northern Ireland will be up against. None of Bulgaria, Luxembourg or Belarus are among the top 80 ranked teams (at the time of writing) and all are sides with underwhelming records. At the time the draw was made, Bulgaria were winless in 11 matches while Belarus’s three victories in the same amount of matches came against Andorra and Kosovo (twice).

Luxembourg, despite their 9-0 thrashing at the hands of Portugal in September, are probably the most dangerous of the three. This is not something you would have said years ago but the tiny country has shown real improvements of late. They beat Bosnia-Herzegovina home and away in Euro 2024 qualification, helping them finish third in their group.

It looks set to be a fairly scrappy group but from the four teams involved, Northern Ireland have the best chance of ending up on top.

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